Sunday 19 June 2016

EU Referendum debate. Economic forecasting? Take heed of J.K.Galbraith!

This letter was submitted to the Western Daily Press and Western Morning News on June 8th but I am not aware of it being published.

The economic establishment made up of institutions as diverse as, for example, The Treasury, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Fund and bankers JP Morgan, have issued forecasts which range from gloomy to apocalyptic should “Brexit” come to pass.
 
When hearing such forecasts I think of the words of the late Canadian-born American economist, public official and diplomat John Kenneth Galbraith who said: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
 
So forget the nightmare financial scenarios of the “Remainiacs” and the “Brexiteers” prophecy of an economic Shangri-La.
 
The real decision to be made on June 23 is not about economics, it is whether to live in an independent nation with its own sovereign parliament or have a parliament which will inevitably become little more than a regional administrative office of the European Union.
  
S.W.
English Democrats, Somerset


Since this letter was written the "Remaniac" camp has proceeded from "Project Fear" to "Project Blackmail" with George Osborne threatening cuts in pensions and emergency austerity budgets if the electorate vote "Leave".

Meanwhile, European Council president Donald Tusk has told the German newspaper Bild: "As a historian I fear Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also western political civilisation in its entirety."  Blimey!

However, in the Daily Telegraph a Brussels diplomat takes the opposite view to Mr Tusk and is quoted as saying in the event of Brexit: "The EU will have found an identity and will have moved forward, deepening in key areas like monetary union and defence."

The European Council president and the unnamed Brussels diplomat cannot both be right.  Time will tell which one has correctly forecast the European Union's destiny, and that time is not far off.

Here is a link to The Telegraph article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/eu-referendum-defiant-senior-brussels-diplomat-warns-uk-not-to-o/

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